The Dip, the Stall, and Your Next Move

Stephanie Biello

Quick question. When mortgage rates ease off their highs, do buyers naturally rush back into the market? It feels like they should. But this week’s numbers—paired with the calendar—tell a much more nuanced story.

Stephanie Biello

I’m Stephanie Biello, Associate Broker with Kurfiss Sotheby’s International Realty, and this is Monday Market Updates with Stephanie. Grab your coffee, and let’s make sense of the numbers together.

Stephanie Biello

Let’s start with rates, because we are seeing some movement. Freddie Mac’s weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage came in at seven point one eight percent as of November 5th. Back in early October, we were staring at seven point four zero percent. Since then, it’s eased three weeks in a row: down to seven point three two, then seven point two four, and now seven point one eight.

Stephanie Biello

That’s progress. But seven point one eight percent is still a formidable rate. Think of a steep incline getting slightly less steep—it’s not a flat road just yet.

Stephanie Biello

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve met on October 28th and held its target range steady at three and three-quarters to four percent. The vote was ten to two, with the dissenting members actually pushing for a raise, not a cut. Their statement noted that inflation remains elevated and offered no guarantees on the path forward. In short, the Fed isn't handing us a quick fix.

Stephanie Biello

Locally & The Seasonal Factor Now, let’s bring it home to the Philadelphia metro and our surrounding suburbs, and look at how seasonality is playing into this.

Stephanie Biello

The latest Bright MLS report puts our median sold price at $400,000. New pending sales—contracts actually being signed—came in at five thousand one hundred fifty nine, which is down about ten point seven percent from last year, with showings moving in a similar direction, down ten point five percent.

Stephanie Biello

At the same time, inventory is shifting. New listings ticked up slightly by zero point seven percent, and total active listings at the end of the month were up nearly 20 percent compared to last year.

Stephanie Biello

Put those pieces together, and you have to factor in the time of year. Fall and early winter naturally bring a seasonal cooling. Buyers traditionally pull back as holidays approach, and families try to settle before the school year. When you combine seasonal slowdown with higher borrowing costs, it explains why active listings are climbing while showings soften.

Stephanie Biello

Yet, there is a vital nuance here. The typical home that did sell went under contract in just 16 days—completely unchanged from last year. This market isn't frozen; it’s selective. Serious buyers are out there, but they are discerning.

Stephanie Biello

Across the wider Mid-Atlantic, closed sales fell five point two percent, while the median price ticked up one point two percent to $425,000, marking the slowest pace of price growth we've seen since May 2023. As Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Bright’s chief economist, pointed out, many buyers are being priced out, while others who can make the numbers work are simply pausing to wait for greater economic certainty.

Stephanie Biello

What it means for buyers If you’re a buyer right now, seasonality works heavily in your favor. You have significantly more choice than you did a year ago, and because the fall slowdown is masking competition, you aren't fighting off a dozen competing offers on every single tour.

Stephanie Biello

However, because well-priced, high-caliber homes are still moving rapidly, a seasonal lull doesn’t mean great properties sit around. Your monthly payment is what ultimately dictates your purchasing power. Sitting down with a lender to map out your actual numbers before you shop is your smartest first step.

Stephanie Biello

What it means for sellers For our sellers, seasonality means urgency is everything. Buyers looking during the late-fall and winter months are hyper-serious—they aren't browsing; they have a timeline. But because overall buyer traffic softens as the holidays approach, precise pricing and immaculate presentation matter more than ever.

Stephanie Biello

Homes priced in alignment with current realities are still going under contract in about two weeks. The ones that miss the mark are the ones accumulating days on market, which can linger right through the winter doldrums. If you’re considering a move, success starts with knowing precisely where your home stands in today’s market—not where it sat last spring.

Stephanie Biello

To wrap it all up: rates are easing, and seasonality is bringing a natural breather to our market. For buyers, that creates breathing room and less competition. For sellers, it demands precision and strategy. In both cases, having the right information is your greatest edge.

Stephanie Biello

Looking ahead to next Monday, we’re watching one central question: does a slightly lower rate coax buyers back to the closing table, or will the holiday season keep activity muted? Freddie Mac releases its next rate update on Thursday, and the October Bright MLS report will be dropping soon. I'll be tracking both for you.

Stephanie Biello

That’s your Market Updates for this week. If you have a question about your specific property or a neighborhood you're looking into, I’m always here for a conversation. Have a wonderful week, and I’ll see you next Monday.