Seven Percent Seasick: What a Stalling Fall Market Means for Philly Buyers and Sellers

Stephanie Biello

Good morning, and welcome to Monday Market Updates with Stephanie. I'm Stephanie Biello, associate broker at Kurfiss Sotheby's International Realty. Grab your coffee. This one matters!

Stephanie Biello

Feeling a little seasick watching mortgage rates? You are not alone. Last October, the average 30 year rate was 6.19 percent. This week, Freddie Mac has it at 7.32 percent. Same houses. Same streets. Very different monthly payments.

Stephanie Biello

So what is that doing to our market, and what can you do about it? Let's dig in.

Stephanie Biello

First, rates. Freddie Mac's latest reading, from October 22nd, shows the 30-year fixed at seven point three two percent. That is a small dip from 7.4 the week before, and the first drop in about nine weeks. But it is still a rate that changes the math for a lot of households.

Stephanie Biello

Now, the Philadelphia metro. Bright MLS is our regional listing service, and its September report came out on October 12th.

Stephanie Biello

New pending sales, meaning homes that went under contract, were down 10.7 percent from a year ago. Showings fell 10.5 percent. Sellers are still listing, with new listings up just 0.7 percent. But the total number of active listings at the end of the month was up 19.6 percent.

Stephanie Biello

Put simply, homes are coming on the market, but they are not leaving as fast. Inventory is building.

Stephanie Biello

Across the metro, the median price sits at 400,000 dollars. But in our upper-bracket and luxury segments, we are seeing a different dynamic. Less sensitivity to rate hikes, but heightened sensitivity to pricing accuracy and condition. In other words, a buyer at that level may not care much about a rate. They care a great deal about whether a home is priced correctly and presented well.

Stephanie Biello

Bright MLS's chief economist, Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, said that with rates escalating quickly to close to 7.5 percent, more buyers are being priced out of the market. And even those who can still make the numbers work may be waiting for more certainty in the market and the economy.

Stephanie Biello

Nationally, it looks similar. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales ran at an annual pace of three point nine nine million in September. That was up 1.5 percent from August, but down 2.2 percent from a year ago. And NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power.

Stephanie Biello

What does this mean if you are a buyer? Here is the plain truth. For many households, purchasing power is lower than it was a year ago.

Stephanie Biello

But I want to speak to the buyers who are not financing at all. Even if you are purchasing with cash or private financing, these rates matter to you, because they are reshaping seller expectations and expanding your negotiating leverage across every price tier. When fewer buyers can qualify, sellers see fewer showings and fewer offers, and the conversation changes.

Stephanie Biello

So how do you use that leverage well? It is more than a lower price. Whether that means negotiating a rate buydown, securing credits for deferred maintenance, or structuring terms that give the seller post-closing flexibility in exchange for price concessions, the best outcomes come from looking at the whole deal. Your agent and your lender or advisors can help you decide which tools fit your situation.

Stephanie Biello

And if you are a seller, the playbook has shifted. A year ago you might have listed and waited for offers. Now buyers have options, and they are taking their time.

Stephanie Biello

That puts a premium on two things, and they matter most at the top of the market. The first is pricing accuracy. Price it to the market you are in, not the one you remember. The second is condition. Fewer showings means every showing counts, and a buyer with options will notice every deferred repair.

Stephanie Biello

The encouraging part is that well-priced, well-presented homes are still selling. The median in the Philadelphia metro is 16 days on market, the same as last year. This is not a frozen market. It is a pickier one.

Stephanie Biello

Here is my one takeaway. A slower market is not a broken market. It is a market that rewards preparation. Buyers who come with a plan, and sellers who come with an accurate price and a home in excellent condition, are the ones who will do well this winter.

Stephanie Biello

Keep an eye on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve meets on October 28th, and the bond market is watching closely, with oil prices adding pressure. Whatever they decide, I will break down what it means next Monday.

Stephanie Biello

If you have a question you want answered on the show, send it my way I'd be happy to answer. I'm Stephanie Biello, and this has been Monday Market Updates. Have a wonderful week.

Stephanie Biello

This is market information, not legal, tax or financial advice.